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本網站所有內容僅供參考，並不構成任何投資建議或保證。
所有投資決策需謹慎評估個人風險承受能力，建議在必要時尋求專業財務顧問的建議。
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Lix’s Trading Memo 📖
Analysis of Early 2025 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP):
Post-Lunar New Year Market Trends & Impact
Post-Lunar New Year Market Trends & Impact
The February 2025 NFP report
is highly anticipated, with markets watching
its impact on the Fed, USD, gold, and stocks. Post-Lunar New Year hiring trends
and a Goldman Sachs-predicted labor
force revision could bring surprises.
This article breaks down key factors and trading strategies.
is highly anticipated, with markets watching
its impact on the Fed, USD, gold, and stocks. Post-Lunar New Year hiring trends
and a Goldman Sachs-predicted labor
force revision could bring surprises.
This article breaks down key factors and trading strategies.
Hi, I’m Lix.
Today, I want to talk about this Friday’s
February 2025 NFP report,
a true market “bomb” 💣!
This release comes right after the Lunar New Year, making its global impact even more intense.
Many traders know NFP is important,
but few understand exactly
why it moves USD, gold, and stocks.
This time, Goldman Sachs predicts a
massive labor data revision,
combined with market expectations
for Fed rate cuts and Trump’s return to office—
This is a critical moment worth analyzing!
Today, I want to talk about this Friday’s
February 2025 NFP report,
a true market “bomb” 💣!
This release comes right after the Lunar New Year, making its global impact even more intense.
Many traders know NFP is important,
but few understand exactly
why it moves USD, gold, and stocks.
This time, Goldman Sachs predicts a
massive labor data revision,
combined with market expectations
for Fed rate cuts and Trump’s return to office—
This is a critical moment worth analyzing!
1
Overview of U.S.
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
What is NFP, and why is it important?
NFP, released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), measures employment changes excluding the agricultural sector.
Why does NFP matter?
1️⃣ Fed Policy: Influences interest rate decisions, borrowing costs, and investments.
2️⃣ Forex Market: Strong NFP boosts USD, while weak data weakens it.
3️⃣ Gold & Stocks: Tight policy pressures gold & stocks, while easing benefits both.
NFP releases often trigger significant market swings, making it essential for traders to monitor closely.
NFP, released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), measures employment changes excluding the agricultural sector.
Why does NFP matter?
- Strong NFP → Fed may maintain high rates to prevent overheating.
- Weak NFP → Market expects rate cuts, impacting USD, gold, and stocks.
1️⃣ Fed Policy: Influences interest rate decisions, borrowing costs, and investments.
2️⃣ Forex Market: Strong NFP boosts USD, while weak data weakens it.
3️⃣ Gold & Stocks: Tight policy pressures gold & stocks, while easing benefits both.
NFP releases often trigger significant market swings, making it essential for traders to monitor closely.
2
Analysis of January & February 2025 NFP
1
January NFP Review: Strong or Weak?
January’s NFP shocked markets due to record-breaking data revisions:
- Labor force increased by 2.5 million 📈
- Household employment revised up by 2.3 million
- Unemployment rate slightly rose
- USD Index (DXY) fluctuated as traders assessed Fed’s response.
- Gold price dipped, then rebounded on shifting rate expectations.
- U.S. stocks wobbled, with tech stocks retreating on delayed rate cut fears.
2
February NFP Preview: Post-Lunar New Year Rebound?
📅 Release Date: February 7, 2025
Key market questions:
1️⃣ Hiring trends: Are businesses still expanding?
2️⃣ Unemployment rate: Will it stay at 3.7-3.8% or rise?
3️⃣ Fed Policy: Will strong NFP delay rate cuts?
Potential scenarios:
Key market questions:
1️⃣ Hiring trends: Are businesses still expanding?
2️⃣ Unemployment rate: Will it stay at 3.7-3.8% or rise?
3️⃣ Fed Policy: Will strong NFP delay rate cuts?
Potential scenarios:
- Strong NFP → Delayed rate cuts → USD up, gold down, stocks volatile
- Weak NFP → Faster rate cuts → USD down, gold & stocks rally
3
Key Factors Affecting NFP
1️⃣ Economic Growth & Hiring Trends
- GDP Growth: Strong GDP supports hiring; economic slowdown weakens it.
- Tech Layoffs vs. Traditional Jobs: AI & cloud computing create jobs, but automation disrupts industries.
- Retail & Services: Lunar New Year recovery may boost temporary employment.
- If NFP is strong, rate cuts may be delayed ⏳
- If NFP weakens, markets will bet on earlier rate cuts 💰
- Tighter immigration policies have strained industries like construction, agriculture, and hospitality.
- Future labor market shifts depend on policy changes and skill mismatches in the workforce.
4
Market Impact of NFP
1️⃣ Impact on USD & Forex Markets
💵 Stronger NFP → USD rises 📈
💵 Weaker NFP → USD falls 📉
Traders should:
✅ Compare actual data with market expectations.
✅ Monitor Fed officials’ speeches post-NFP.
✅ Track gold-forex correlations (USD up → gold down, USD down → gold up).
2️⃣ Impact on Gold, Stocks & Other Assets
🔥 Gold hit $2,860, an all-time high!
📌 If NFP is too strong, rate cuts may be postponed, pressuring stocks.
📌 If weak, rate cuts may come earlier, boosting risk assets.
NFP is a key market signal—stay alert!
💵 Stronger NFP → USD rises 📈
💵 Weaker NFP → USD falls 📉
Traders should:
✅ Compare actual data with market expectations.
✅ Monitor Fed officials’ speeches post-NFP.
✅ Track gold-forex correlations (USD up → gold down, USD down → gold up).
2️⃣ Impact on Gold, Stocks & Other Assets
🔥 Gold hit $2,860, an all-time high!
- Strong NFP → USD up, gold down ⬇️
- Weak NFP → USD down, gold up (Possible break above $2,900!) 🚀
- Strong NFP → Delayed rate cuts → Tech stocks struggle 📉
- Weak NFP → Faster rate cuts → Growth stocks surge 🚀
📌 If NFP is too strong, rate cuts may be postponed, pressuring stocks.
📌 If weak, rate cuts may come earlier, boosting risk assets.
NFP is a key market signal—stay alert!
🔥 Conclusion:
February NFP is a Critical Market Test—Stay Alert!
📌 Gold at an All-Time High—NFP could be the next catalyst!
📌 Fed’s Rate Cut Timing Uncertain—Market volatility will surge!
📌 Forex, gold, and stock traders—This NFP report is a key turning point for early 2025!
February NFP is a Critical Market Test—Stay Alert!
📌 Gold at an All-Time High—NFP could be the next catalyst!
📌 Fed’s Rate Cut Timing Uncertain—Market volatility will surge!
📌 Forex, gold, and stock traders—This NFP report is a key turning point for early 2025!
Lix Forex
My Investment Note
5
Post-Lunar New Year Market Outlook & Trading Strategies in 2025
1
Short-Term Trading: Pre & Post-NFP Strategies
📅 Before NFP Release:
- Watch market sentiment & Fed statements.
- Avoid premature entries—wait for confirmation.
- Strong NFP → Short gold around $2,850-$2,870 📉
- Weak NFP → Buy gold if it breaks $2,900 🚀
- Strong NFP → Long USD/JPY, Short EUR/USD
- Weak NFP → Short USD, Buy EUR/USD & Gold
- Strong NFP → Nasdaq (NAS100) may drop, consider shorts.
- Weak NFP → S&P 500 (SPX) may rally, look for buy opportunities.
🖋️ Lix’s Note:
The best approach is to prepare for both long & short positions, letting the market reveal its direction!
🚨 If you have no trades before NFP, don’t rush in—wait for the volatility to settle first.
The best approach is to prepare for both long & short positions, letting the market reveal its direction!
🚨 If you have no trades before NFP, don’t rush in—wait for the volatility to settle first.
Lix Forex
My Investment Note
2
Long-Term Investment: Navigating 2025 Market Trends
🔹 Key Economic Trends to Watch:
- Manufacturing & energy could benefit from U.S. policies.
- Fed rate cuts: Lower rates favor tech stocks, gold & bonds.
- Sector trends:
- Manufacturing & energy could benefit from U.S. policies.
- Gold’s potential: Already at record highs, could rise further if USD weakens.
6
2025 Market Outlook & Key Trading Strategies
📊 Short-Term Trading Strategies:
✅ Watch market expectations & Fed speeches pre-NFP.
✅ Strong NFP → Buy USD/JPY, short gold.
✅ Weak NFP → Buy gold, long EUR/USD.
📊 Long-Term Investment Strategies:
✅ Monitor Fed rate cuts—low rates benefit growth stocks.
✅ Manufacturing & energy sectors have long-term potential.
✅ Gold is a strong hedge—buy on dips.
✅ Watch market expectations & Fed speeches pre-NFP.
✅ Strong NFP → Buy USD/JPY, short gold.
✅ Weak NFP → Buy gold, long EUR/USD.
📊 Long-Term Investment Strategies:
✅ Monitor Fed rate cuts—low rates benefit growth stocks.
✅ Manufacturing & energy sectors have long-term potential.
✅ Gold is a strong hedge—buy on dips.
📝 Market Psychology & Trading Plan
📌 Summary:
The February 2025 NFP will shape both short- and long-term trading decisions.
Markets are volatile—stay flexible & adjust strategies as needed! 🚀
The February 2025 NFP will shape both short- and long-term trading decisions.
Markets are volatile—stay flexible & adjust strategies as needed! 🚀
Feel free to share your thoughts or insights anytime!
I'm Lix, your Taiwanese trading buddy
—see you next time! 👋✨
© 2024 All Rights Reserved
liz.chen@zfx.com
liz.chen@zfx.com
