Lix’s Trading NOTE 📖
Trump’s Inauguration and Its Global Economic Impact:
Forex, Bitcoin & Investment Strategies
Hi everyone! I'm Lix,
your Taiwanese girl passionate about sharing
global finance and investment trends! 🌍✨
Today’s topic is no ordinary discussion
it’s about a major shift in global economics: Trump is back!
Yes, today marks his official inauguration,
and this isn’t just a political event
it’s a game-changer for financial markets.
Whether you're into forex, Bitcoin,
or overall investment strategies,
this is something you don’t want to miss!
Let’s dive in and break it all down together! 🚀💡
【Live】Trump’s Inauguration Ceremony
JAN.20 2025

On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump
is sworn in as the U.S. President once again.
His return to the White House has not only sparked
intense debate within the U.S. but has also drawn global attention to economic prospects.
From trade policies, tax reforms,
to diplomatic strategies, every move could
reshape the global economic order.
The forex market and Bitcoin have already reacted,
while Taiwan, as an export-dependent economy,
is also expected to be significantly affected.
This article will analyze the
economic impact of Trump’s inauguration
from the perspectives of forex, cryptocurrencies,
and investment strategies.
▲U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn in on January 20 (ET).
According to an exclusive report from The Wall Street Journal,
excerpts from Trump's inaugural speech reveal that
he will call for a "Revolution of Common Sense."
(Picture/美聯社/達志影像)
Trump’s Return to the White House:
A New Turning Point for the U.S. Economy
As the world’s largest economy, the U.S. wields enormous influence over global financial markets. With Trump’s economic policies taking shape, markets have already shown early reactions:
  • U.S. dollar fluctuations 📉📈
  • Bitcoin reaching new highs 🚀
  • Global stock markets experiencing volatility

For Taiwan, a key economic hub in Asia, Trump’s policies could bring both challenges and opportunities.

▲ Bitcoin Hits a New All-Time High on Inauguration Day.
1
Market Reactions:
USD Volatility & Bitcoin Surge
Why is the USD Fluctuating?

Trump’s inauguration is not just a political event—it’s a major catalyst for global markets, particularly impacting USD trends. Here are three key reasons behind the volatility:

1️⃣ Policy Expectations: Tax Cuts & Infrastructure Plans
  • Corporate & individual tax cuts → Boosts corporate profits & consumer spending, increasing USD appeal.
  • Infrastructure spending → Stimulates domestic demand & economic growth, attracting capital inflows into USD assets.
  • Risk: If policy execution falls short, USD may face a pullback.
2️⃣ Fed’s Interest Rate Decisions
  • If Trump’s stimulus policies accelerate inflation, the Fed may hike rates faster, strengthening USD.
  • If economic overheating or capital outflows occur, the Fed may turn cautious, limiting USD gains.
3️⃣ Geopolitical Risks & USD’s Safe-Haven Status
  • Trade war concerns → Trump’s protectionist policies may fuel fears of a new global trade war, leading to short-term USD strength but long-term uncertainty.
  • Gold vs. USD → If Trump’s policies trigger economic instability, investors may shift to gold, weakening USD.
Trump’s 2025 Policy Agenda: Key Takeaways
1
Economic & Tax Policies
  • Plans to cut corporate tax to 15% to attract business investment.
  • U.S. national debt projected to rise to 116% of GDP by 2028 due to aggressive stimulus spending.
2
Trade & Globalization
  • Proposes steeper tariffs on China (at least 60%), signaling tougher protectionist trade policies.
3
Energy & Environmental Policies
  • Supports oil & gas industries, plans to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement to ease restrictions on energy production.
4
Defense & Social Spending
  • Increases military spending, while cutting funding for education, healthcare, and welfare programs.
5
Financial Markets & Investment Climate
  • Hopes to leverage Fed’s rate cuts to attract investment & boost U.S. stock markets.
6
Economic Risks & Global Challenges
  • Warns of economic crisis risks, including inflation, debt concerns, and geopolitical uncertainties.
7
U.S.-China Relations
  • Despite tensions, Trump hints at limited cooperation to ease economic pressures, but “America First” remains the priority.
8
Jobs & Economic Equity
  • Advocates less government intervention, believing the free market will create jobs, but has no clear solutions for wealth inequality.
What’s Next for the USD & Investment Markets?
Trump’s inauguration has sent shockwaves through global markets. The future trajectory of the U.S. dollar will depend on:
Policy implementation
Fed’s response to inflation & rate cuts
Geopolitical developments
For investors, understanding these factors and adjusting forex investment strategies will be crucial in navigating this economic shift. 🚀
2
Crypto Surge: Why is Bitcoin in the Spotlight?
With Trump set to be inaugurated as U.S. President once again, market anticipation over his policy direction has drawn intense investor attention to Bitcoin.
In a short period, Bitcoin surged to a historic high, breaking $100,900, further solidifying its influence and correlation within the crypto market.
Why is Bitcoin Surging? Key Drivers Behind the Rally
Bitcoin is often seen as "digital gold", especially during periods of economic and policy uncertainty. With Trump’s potentially crypto-friendly policies, along with rising inflation concerns, investors are pouring capital into Bitcoin.
📌 Key Factors Behind Bitcoin’s Breakout
🔹 1. Trump’s Support for Crypto
  • Trump has publicly acknowledged the role of crypto in financial innovation.
  • His administration may loosen regulations, encouraging crypto adoption.
  • This boosts market confidence, drawing in more institutional and retail investors.
🔹 2. Market Sentiment & Capital Inflows
  • Bitcoin soared past $100,900, reflecting strong optimism about future stability.
  • Global capital inflows: More institutions and investors see Bitcoin as a strategic asset.
  • Safe-haven demand: With uncertainty in traditional markets, Bitcoin’s decentralized nature makes it an attractive alternative.
Bitcoin’s Growth: Opportunity or Risk?
✔ The Opportunity: Bitcoin as Digital Gold
  • Bitcoin’s rapid rise reaffirms its store-of-value status.
  • Inflation hedge & global liquidity make Bitcoin a reliable long-term asset.
⚠ The Challenge: Regulation & Volatility
  • Regulatory uncertainty: While Trump may support crypto, global regulations remain unpredictable.
  • Bubble concerns: Bitcoin’s rapid climb to $100K+ raises questions about overheating—investors should prepare for possible corrections.
Crypto Investment Strategy: How to Stay Safe in a Volatile Market?
Diversification: Don’t just focus on BTC—watch Ethereum & other promising digital assets.
Stay updated: Follow U.S. crypto regulations closely to avoid policy-driven losses.
Risk management: Set realistic take-profit & stop-loss levels to handle market swings.
Bitcoin’s massive rally reflects both safe-haven demand and faith in digital assets.
But remember—high returns come with high risks!
💡 My best advice?
Just DCA into Bitcoin spot holdings—the crypto market moves 10x faster than traditional stocks! 🚀
Think of Bitcoin as a commodity, not just a currency, and long-term holding is the true king’s way.
(Imagine those who held from $20K to $100K…💎🙌)
🔹 Stay smart, stay patient, and ride the wave wisely!
Lix
Taiwanese Buddy ????????
▲I want to share a wild story with you all—Trump and the future First Lady launched their own meme coin, and it skyrocketed 700x over a single weekend!
(This is in Chinese, so don’t forget to turn on subtitles!) 🎬✨
(YouTube / 邦妮區塊鏈 Bonnie Blockchain
3
Forex Trading Strategy:
Navigating Market Volatility Under the "Trump Effect"
Trump’s policy shifts and post-inauguration expectations have significantly impacted the global forex market, particularly in currency volatility. Below are key currency pair recommendations and short-term & long-term trading strategies to help investors capitalize on market movements while balancing risk and returns.
Best Forex Pairs to Watch
1
USD/JPY – U.S. Dollar vs. Japanese Yen
📍 Why?
  • Stronger USD: If Trump’s stimulus policies drive growth, the Fed may adopt a hawkish stance, strengthening the USD.
  • Stronger JPY: In times of market uncertainty, investors flock to safe-haven assets like the JPY.
📌 Trading Strategy:
  • If Trump’s policies boost USDGo long USD/JPY.
  • If risk sentiment worsens (e.g., geopolitical tensions)Go short USD/JPY (JPY strengthens).
2
EUR/USD – Euro vs. U.S. Dollar
📍 Why?
  • Trump’s economic policies could reshape U.S.-EU trade relations, affecting the euro.
  • ECB vs. Fed policy divergence adds extra volatility to this pair.
📌 Trading Strategy:
  • If U.S. economic growth outperforms expectationsShort EUR/USD.
  • If the Eurozone economy strengthens & ECB remains hawkishGo long EUR/USD.
3
AUD/USD – Australian Dollar vs. U.S. Dollar
📍 Why?
  • The Australian dollar is a commodity currency, closely tied to global trade and commodity prices.
  • Trump’s trade policies could disrupt global trade, impacting Australia’s export-driven economy.
📌 Trading Strategy:
  • If U.S. policies drive commodity prices lowerShort AUD/USD.
  • If risk appetite improves & Australian economy remains stableGo long AUD/USD.
Trading Strategies: Short-Term & Long-Term Approaches
1
Short-Term Trading Strategy: Capturing Market Volatility
Trump’s policy statements & tweets often cause sharp short-term market swings. Traders can capitalize on these rapid movements using technical analysis.
📌 Strategy Recommendations:
Set tight stop-loss & take-profit levels to manage short-term volatility.
Use RSI & MACD indicators to identify overbought or oversold conditions.
Watch key support & resistance levels for potential breakout trades.
2
Long-Term Trading Strategy: Hedging & Positioning
Trump’s inaugural speech & policy direction will set the tone for long-term economic strategies. Whether it's tax cuts, stimulus, or trade policies, these factors will drive market trends over months or years.
📌 Strategy Recommendations:
🔹 Interpreting Policy Signals
  • If Trump emphasizes economic stimulus (e.g., tax cuts, infrastructure spending) → USD strengthens.
  • If trade tensions rise, expect commodity currencies like AUD to weaken.
🔹 Interest Rates & Market Impact
  • If Trump favors higher interest rates, the Fed may tighten monetary policy, pushing USD higher.
  • U.S. Treasury yields are key indicators of market sentiment—higher yields often support USD.
🔹 Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset
  • If Trump’s policies increase geopolitical risks or trade uncertainty, gold demand rises.
  • Gold prices surge in volatile markets, making it a key long-term hedge.
Flexible Market Adaptation: How to React to Market Shifts?
Monitor Trump’s policy rollout—adjust positions based on policy execution & market reactions.
For USD & gold → Use gradual position building instead of full allocation at once.
Use technical indicators to confirm trend strength before entering large positions.
Want to understand how U.S. Treasuries impact the USD?
(This is in Chinese, so don’t forget to turn on subtitles!)
(YouTube / 小Lin说
4
Potential Global Economic Impact of Trump's Policies
📌Trade Policy & Global Market Reactions
Trump's trade policies, infrastructure plans, and regulatory shifts are set to reshape global markets. From U.S.-China relations to inflation risks and supply chain adjustments, investors must closely monitor these developments to seize opportunities and mitigate risks.
1
China: A Mix of Competition & Cooperation
  • Trump's past tariff hikes & tech restrictions created tensions with China.
  • However, recent resolutions (e.g., TikTok negotiations) suggest a more balanced approach—a mix of collaboration & regulation rather than outright confrontation.
🔹 Market Impact:
  • If tariffs rise, expect weaker Chinese exports and volatility in Asian markets.
  • A more cooperative stance may stabilize global trade but keep tech restrictions in place.
2
Europe: Strained Trade Relations with U.S.
  • Trump has repeatedly criticized EU trade policies, claiming they are unfair to the U.S..
  • If tariff threats continue, EU exports could suffer, slowing economic recovery.
🔹 Market Impact:
  • EU trade disputes may weaken the euro (EUR/USD volatility rises).
  • If tariffs are imposed on European goods, expect pressure on EU manufacturing & exports.
3
Canada: Trade & Energy Dependence on U.S.
  • Under the USMCA agreement, Canada faces stricter rules on dairy and auto exports.
  • Keystone XL pipeline revival could boost Canadian oil exports, but environmental concerns remain.
🔹 Market Impact:
  • A pro-energy policy benefits CAD (watch USD/CAD trends).
  • U.S.-Canada trade relations remain stable, but auto & dairy industries face adjustments.
4
Emerging Markets: The Next Investment Hotspot?
  • If Trump accelerates supply chain diversification away from China,
  • Southeast Asia & South Asia could benefit from new U.S. investments.
🔹 Market Impact:
  • Countries like Vietnam, India & Mexico may attract manufacturing & tech investments.
  • Expect emerging market currency appreciation as capital flows increase.
📌Inflation & Debt Risks from Trump's Infrastructure Plans
1️⃣ Inflationary Pressures from Infrastructure Spending
  • Large-scale infrastructure projects boost demand for raw materials,
  • pushing commodity prices (steel, oil, copper) higherInflation risk rises.
  • Higher wages in construction may further increase consumer prices.
🔹 Market Impact:
  • Commodity currencies like AUD, CAD could rise with higher resource demand.
  • Gold (XAU/USD) may gain as an inflation hedge.
2️⃣ National Debt Growth & U.S. Dollar Stability
  • Massive infrastructure spending requires significant funding,
  • leading to increased U.S. debt issuance.
  • This could trigger concerns over long-term debt sustainability, affecting USD stability.
🔹 Market Impact:
  • If debt concerns rise, USD could face downward pressure.
  • Watch U.S. Treasury yields—rising yields may support USD, while declining yields may weaken it.
📌Key Market Sectors Affected
1️⃣ Commercial Real Estate Crisis 🏢
  • Rising interest rates & declining office space demand put downward pressure on U.S. real estate.
2️⃣ Electric Vehicle (EV) Market Disruptions 🚗⚡
  • Trump’s rollback of green policies impacts EV incentives & competition.
  • Tesla & other EV manufacturers face pricing pressures as government support declines.
📌U.S.-China Tech Rivalry: The TikTok Case Study
  • The TikTok controversy reflects Trump’s evolving stance on China’s tech industry.
  • From an initial ban threat to negotiation & regulation, the U.S. now seeks controlled engagement with Chinese firms.
🔹 Market Impact:
  • U.S.-China tech tensions remain, but outright bans may be replaced by stricter regulations.
  • Investors should watch U.S. policy shifts on Chinese-listed stocks (e.g., Alibaba, Tencent).
📌Investment Takeaways: How to Navigate the "Trump Effect"?
Monitor trade agreements, infrastructure plans, and regulatory changes.
Stay alert to inflation risks & potential USD fluctuations.
Watch sector-specific trends (e.g., commodities, tech, EVs, real estate).
📌Forex Market: Balancing Risk & Return
The forex market offers high potential returns, but risk management is crucial.
🛡 Key strategies to protect capital:
Use stop-loss & leverage control.
Diversify across multiple currency pairs.
Follow macroeconomic indicators & political developments.
💡 Final Thought:
A disciplined mindset & well-planned strategy are the foundation of successful forex trading! 🚀
5
Potential Impact on Taiwan: Export, Tech, and Geopolitical Challenges
Trump’s Trade Policies: A Double-Edged Sword for Taiwan’s Export Industry
Trump's trade policies and U.S.-China tensions could reshape Taiwan’s economic and geopolitical landscape. While opportunities for deeper U.S.-Taiwan cooperation exist, the risks of economic retaliation and regional instability must also be considered.
📌Taiwan’s Role in the New Geopolitical Landscape
Taiwan plays a crucial role in the global semiconductor and tech supply chain, making it a key partner in America’s "China-free" strategy.
🔹 Opportunities
U.S. may strengthen collaboration with Taiwan, especially in advanced semiconductor production (e.g., TSMC investments).
Increased U.S. investment & technology cooperation could boost Taiwan’s economic growth.
🔹 Risks
Stronger U.S. tech sanctions on China may escalate tensions, exposing Taiwan to greater risks of retaliation.
China’s push for tech self-sufficiency could reduce long-term reliance on Taiwan’s exports.
👉 If China reduces dependency on Taiwanese tech, Taiwan’s export market diversification will become more critical.
📌Impact on Taiwan’s Global Trade Position
  • If the U.S. imposes trade sanctions on the EU or Asia-Pacific countries, Taiwan’s supply chain stability could be affected.
  • Taiwan must enhance trade diversification and accelerate tech innovation to stay competitive amid shifting global trade policies.
💡 Key Takeaway
Taiwan stands at a critical crossroads, facing both opportunities for deeper U.S. collaboration and challenges from geopolitical tensions.
Strengthening tech innovation & diversifying export markets will be key strategies to navigate the "Trump Effect" and secure Taiwan’s economic future. 🚀
6
Investor’s Guide:
How to Position Global Assets
Amid Market Shifts?
With Trump's return to office, global economic and market uncertainties are rising. Investors must strategically adjust asset allocations to seize opportunities while hedging against risks.
Key Takeaways from Trump’s 2025 Policies & Market Impacts
1
Economic Policy & U.S. National Debt
  • Corporate tax cut to 15% to attract investment and stimulate growth.
  • National debt expected to rise to 116% of GDP by 2028 (higher than Democrats' projected 109%).
🔹 Market Impact:
Short-term boost for USD, but long-term debt concerns could weigh on markets.
2
Trade & De-Globalization Strategy
  • Aggressive tariffs on China (60% or more).
  • Higher U.S. protectionism could disrupt global supply chains.
🔹 Market Impact:
  • Short-term demand for USD rises as a safe-haven asset.
  • Export-driven economies (Taiwan, Germany, South Korea) face pressure.
3
Energy & Environmental Policy
  • Strong support for fossil fuels (oil, natural gas) and withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement.
🔹 Market Impact:
Energy stocks benefit, but renewables may lose momentum.
4
Financial Markets & Investment Climate
  • Trump aims to leverage Fed rate cuts to boost U.S. stock market.
🔹 Market Impact:
If policies are unclear, volatility in stocks and USD is expected.
Investment Strategies: Stocks, Forex, & Crypto
1
Stock Market: Sectors to Watch
Winners:
  • Infrastructure: Construction, engineering, and raw materials benefit from stimulus.
  • Energy: Oil & gas firms gain from deregulation.
  • Banks: Higher rates could improve banking profits.
Risks:
  • Export-dependent industries may face pressure from U.S.-China trade tensions.
2
Forex Market: Key Currency Pairs
USD/JPY
  • If Trump's economic stimulus strengthens USD, long USD/JPY could be profitable.
  • If market fears rise, JPY (safe-haven currency) strengthens, short USD/JPY may work.
EUR/USD
  • If U.S. growth outlook remains strong, short EUR/USD.
  • If EU recovers faster, long EUR/USD.
AUD/USD
  • If commodity prices fall, short AUD/USD.
  • If global demand strengthens, long AUD/USD.
3
Crypto Market: The Bitcoin Factor
  • Uncertainty fuels demand for decentralized assets like Bitcoin.
  • If capital exits traditional markets, crypto may see further inflows.
  • High volatility risk – manage exposure carefully.
Safe-Haven Asset Allocation: Gold & U.S. Bonds
1
Gold (XAU/USD) as a Hedge
  • Geopolitical risk & USD fluctuations drive gold demand.
  • Best ways to invest:
- Physical gold, Gold ETFs, Gold CFDs.
- Monitor Fed policy – real interest rates impact gold prices.
2
U.S. Treasury Bonds: Is It Still a Safe Haven?
  • Long-term U.S. bonds attract capital during uncertainty.
  • 10-year & 30-year bonds could see inflows if market risk increases.
  • However, Trump’s debt policies raise concerns about bond stability.
However, in my opinion, U.S. Treasuries still require further observation.
Given recent USD fluctuations and expectations for Trump’s policies, U.S. bonds remain uncertain.
(Trump has stated there will be no borrowing limits and has expressed strong views on rate cuts.)
👉 Whether Treasuries will maintain their stability in the future remains to be seen. 📊
荔枝Lix
台灣妹妹
5 Assets Expected to Depreciate in 2025
1️⃣ U.S. Treasuries – Rising interest rates may lower bond prices.
2️⃣ Fixed-income assets – Higher rates reduce their appeal.
3️⃣ Commercial real estate – Higher borrowing costs pressure prices.
4️⃣ USD – Fed policies and trade tensions could weaken the dollar.
5️⃣ Traditional cars – EV growth & price wars reduce combustion vehicle values.
Trump's policies have unpredictable global impacts, but investors can navigate uncertainty through diversified asset allocation.
Balancing stocks, forex, crypto, and safe-haven assets while adjusting strategies based on market sentiment and policy signals will be key to managing risks and seizing opportunities.
📩 DM me for signals & trading setups!
💡 Want trading insights & strategies?
💰 It’s time to capitalize on Trump’s market shake-up!
If you have any questions or thoughts,
feel free to leave a comment! 💬

I'm Lix, your Taiwanese trading buddy

—see you next time! 👋✨

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